On March 9, 2026, Douglas W. Loe, PhD, MBA, Managing Director and Analyst at Leede Financial Inc., reiterated a Buy rating on Profound Medical Corp. (PROF:NASDAQ; PRN:TSX),while lowering the one-year price target to US$11.50 from US$15.25 previously. The target reduction reflects a more measured pace of TULSA-PRO revenue ramp, though the analyst's fundamental investment thesis remains unchanged. At the current share price of US$5.31, the target implies a one-year return of 117%.
Profound Medical reported fiscal Q4 2025 financial results for the December-end quarter that showed sequential growth in consolidated revenue, gross margins holding in the mid-70% range, and a narrowing quarterly EBITDA loss to US$5.9M from US$7.1M in FQ3/25 and US$12.2M in FQ2/25. Capital equipment sales for the flagship TULSA-PRO MR-guided prostate ultrasound ablation platform were particularly strong, rising to US$3.7M from US$1.2M in FQ3/25 and exceeding the cumulative capital sales of US$2.7M for the entire FQ1/25-to-FQ3/25 period. Based on an assumed average US selling price of US$0.4M to US$0.5M per system, Leede estimates approximately eight TULSA-PRO systems were placed or sold in the quarter, consistent with prior company guidance.
However, procedure-based revenue softened in FQ4/25, coming in at US$2.7M versus US$4.1M in FQ3/25, though the figure remained well above FQ1/25 and FQ2/25 levels of US$1.8M and US$1.6M, respectively. With a year-end installed base of 78 TULSA-PRO systems worldwide and an assumed per-ablation price of US$5,500, Leede calculates the average number of prostate ablation procedures per system was approximately six in the quarter, below the roughly ten procedures per system achieved in FQ3/25. The analyst views this disconnect as transient, noting that newly sold systems in FQ4/25 were unlikely to have generated significant procedure volume in their quarter of installation.
Looking ahead, Leede projects procedure-based and maintenance/service/leasing revenue of US$17.6M and TULSA-PRO capital sales of US$14.8M for fiscal 2026, assuming a year-end installed base of 115 systems and average annual procedures per system of 31. Total product revenue is forecast at US$32.2M for F2026, growing to US$52.8M in F2027 and US$80.2M in F2028. The model assumes consolidated gross margins holding in the 66% to 70% range throughout the forecast period. The firm is expected to approach EBITDA breakeven by F2027 at negative US$0.8M before turning meaningfully positive at US$24.7M in F2028.
The analyst has shifted the reference year in EBITDA and EPS valuation methodologies to F2030 to reflect the more gradual pace at which Profound is expected to reach near-steady-state revenue levels. By F2030, Leede projects consolidated revenue of US$150.8M, EBITDA of US$62.6M, and fully diluted EPS of US$1.00 per share. The price target of US$11.50 is derived from the average of three valuation methods: NPV at a 20% discount rate, a 20x P/E multiple, and a 10x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to F2030 estimates. The enterprise value calculation incorporates FQ4/25 balance sheet data, including cash of US$59.7M (inclusive of net proceeds from a December 2025 equity offering) and total debt of US$4.5M.
A key near-term catalyst is the expected release of final three-month peri-operative and six-month quality-of-life data from the 201-patient CAPTAIN trial, which compares TULSA-PRO ablation outcomes to da Vinci-based radical prostatectomy performed by Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG-NASDAQ). An update is anticipated at the European Association of Urology annual meeting later in the week of publication. Interim CAPTAIN data previously presented at the RSNA meeting in December 2025 and the American Urological Association meeting in April 2025 showed TULSA-PRO patients experienced superior outcomes on multiple quality-of-life measures, including reduced blood loss, shorter hospital recovery times, and less post-operative pain. Leede believes the probability of qualitatively similar outcomes at the next analysis is high and that such data could be leveraged to drive broader TULSA-PRO adoption.
Additionally, the 1,000-patient CARE registry trial, which commenced in FQ4/21 across five US centers, could yield early interim data on longer-term complication and disease recurrence rates during the FQ4/26 to FQ1/27 period. A supportive external data point came from a 923-patient UK study published in February 2026 in JAMA Oncology, which found no statistically significant difference in cancer-specific survival between salvage radical prostatectomy and salvage focal ablation therapy (78% of which were ultrasound-based), while noting a statistically higher probability of complications with prostatectomy.
On the competitive landscape, Leede tracks France-based EDAP TMS S.A. (EDAP-NASDAQ), whose FocalONE ultrasound ablation platform had 87 systems installed in US hospitals and 41 in Europe at the end of F2025. EDAP reported a five-year trailing CAGR of 52% on system installations and 44% on ablation procedures. The analyst maintains that positive adoption trends for EDAP's platform are correspondingly positive for TULSA-PRO and the broader prostate ultrasound ablation market, which remains dominated by Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci system, whose cumulative installed base reached 11,106 systems at year-end with quarterly revenue growing to US$2.9B in FQ4/25.
Profound Medical's market data as of the report date included 36.3 million basic shares outstanding, a market capitalization of US$192.7M, and a 52-week trading range of US$3.76 to US$8.95. Average weekly trading volume was approximately 1.06 million shares.
Risks to the investment thesis include the pace of TULSA-PRO installed base expansion, quarterly variability in procedure volumes as the installed base grows to critical mass, competitive dynamics with established prostate treatment modalities, and the perception in parts of the medical community that TULSA-PRO remains an emerging platform despite substantial clinical evidence supporting its efficacy and favorable side-effect profile.
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Disclosures for Leede Financial Inc., Profound Medical Corp., March 9, 2026
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Important Information and Legal Disclaimers Leede Financial Inc. (Leede) is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular investing strategy. Data from various sources were used in the preparation of these documents; the information is believed but in no way warranted to be reliable, accurate and appropriate. All information is as of the date of publication and is subject to change without notice. Any opinions or recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Leede. Leede cannot accept any trading instructions via e-mail as the timely receipt of e-mail messages, or their integrity over the Internet, cannot be guaranteed. Dividend yields change as stock prices change, and companies may change or cancel dividend payments in the future. All securities involve varying amounts of risk, and their values will fluctuate, and the fluctuation of foreign currency exchange rates will also impact your investment returns if measured in Canadian Dollars. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, investments may increase or decrease in value, and you may lose money. Leede employees may buy and sell shares of the companies that are recommended for their own accounts and for the accounts of other clients. Disclosure codes are used in accordance with Policy 3600 of CIRO. Description of Disclosure Codes 1. Leede and its affiliates collectively beneficially own 1% or more of any class of equity securities of the company as of the end of the preceding month or the month prior to the preceding month if the report was issued prior to the 10th. 2. The analyst or any associate of the analyst responsible for the report or public comment hold shares or is short any of the company's securities directly or through derivatives. 3. Leede or a director or officer of Leede or any analyst provided services to the company for remuneration other than normal investment advisory or trade execution services within the preceding 12 months. 4. Leede provided investment banking services for the company during the 12 months preceding the publication of the research report. 5. Leede expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months. 6. The analyst preparing the report received compensation based upon Leede investment banking revenues for this issuer within the preceding 12 months. 7. The director, officer, employee, or research analyst is an officer, director or employee of the company, or serves in an advisory capacity to the company. 8. Leede acts as a market maker of the company. 9. 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