NanoPortal GLP-1 Implant: Adherence Arbitrage Opportunity

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Source: Think Equity Research Report (12/15/25)

Vivani offers a unique arbitrage opportunity on GLP-1 adherence in a massive addressable market. The NanoPortal technology is now clinically validated via the NPM-115 trial, and the company is fully funded to launch its high-value semaglutide program, including lead asset NPM-139, in 2026. Risks regarding future dilution and regulatory execution remain elevated, but the market capitalization undervalues the potential of the platform. We view current valuation as an entry point for risk-tolerant investors and reiterate our $7.00 price target

Healthcare

December 15, 2025
Ashok Kumar, PhD, CFA

Vivani Medical, Inc. (VANI - $1.35 - Buy)

NanoPortal GLP-1 Implant: Adherence Arbitrage Opportunity

Key Points

Overview

Vivani Medical (VANI) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company executing a high-stakes strategic pivot from legacy visual prosthetics to the development of NanoPortal, a proprietary subdermal implant technology designed to deliver steady-state doses of GLP-1 receptor agonists (semaglutide and exenatide). The company aims to disrupt the $100 billion obesity and type 2 diabetes market by solving the critical issue of medication non-adherence, offering a six to twelve month "set and forget" solution that eliminates the burden of weekly injections or daily pills. We maintain our BUY rating and $7.00 price target, driven by the asymmetric upside potential of the company’s lead asset, NPM-139 (semaglutide implant).

Clinical Progress & Catalyst Path

Vivani has achieved pivotal de-risking milestones that validate its technology platform. The recently completed LIBERATE-1 Phase 1 trial of NPM-115 (exenatide implant) successfully met its primary objectives, demonstrating a favorable safety profile and, critically, a non-fluctuating pharmacokinetic (PK) release profile with no clinically meaningful initial burst. This human validation of the NanoPortal technology paves the way for the company’s priority asset: NPM-139 (semaglutide implant). Recent preclinical data for NPM-139 showed ~20% weight loss maintained for over six months in animal models. Management has now prioritized the advancement of NPM-139, with a Phase 1 clinical trial initiation targeted for 1H 2026. This study is designed as a 4-week randomized treatment comparing the implant to a weekly low-dose Wegovy control arm to establish rigorous safety and PK equivalence. This study will be the key value inflection point, positioning Vivani as a differentiated player in the crowded obesity space.

Financial Position & Capital Structure

Vivani has strengthened its balance sheet to support its near-term clinical objectives. As of September 30, 2025, the company reported $4.0 million in cash. Subsequently, in October 2025, Vivani closed a $15.7 million financing (gross proceeds) via a registered direct offering and private placement priced at $1.62 per share. Additionally, the company has approximately $12.6 million in remaining committed capital to be paid in over the coming months. With a quarterly burn rate of approximately $6.5 million, these funds extend the company’s cash runway into 2027, fully funding the NPM-139 Phase 1 trial. The capital structure includes significant leverage, with approximately 8.2 million warrants outstanding at a weighted average exercise price of $3.46, which remains well above the current trading price, limiting immediate overhang risk but capping near-term upside.

Strategic Pivot & Operational Focus

Management has decisively pivoted operations toward the high-value metabolic pipeline. The company continues to pursue the spin-off of its legacy neurostimulation subsidiary, Cortigent, Inc., to unburden the balance sheet and streamline its focus. Although the spin-off record date was temporarily withdrawn in October 2025 due to regulatory delays, the strategic intent remains to separate these assets, evidenced by the amended S-1 filed on December 2, 2025. Should the spin-off not proceed, management may consider ceasing Cortigent operations to preserve cash. The company’s internal GMP manufacturing capabilities in Alameda, CA, provide operational flexibility and cost advantages in producing clinical supplies, a key differentiator for a company of its size.

Summary

Rating, Price and Target

Symbol VANI

Rating Buy

Price $1.35

Price Target $7.00

Market Data

Market Cap (M) $98.6

Shares Outstanding (M) 73.0

Average Daily Volume (000s) 291.0

Float (M) 35.4

Total Debt (M) $0.0

Net Cash/Debt ($M) $19.7

Dividend NM

General: Pro forma cash and net debt figures reflect the September 30, 2025 reported cash balance of $4.0 million adjusted for the receipt of approximately $15.7 million in gross proceeds from the concurrent registered direct offering and private placement closed in October 2025. Additionally, the Company has approximately $12.6 million in remaining committed capital to be paid in over the coming months. Net debt is defined as total debt minus cash and cash equivalents; the Company holds no interest-bearing debt, resulting in a pro forma net debt position of approximately $(19.7) million (excluding committed capital).

FYE Dec 2024A 2025E 2026E

EPS1 (0.43)↓ (0.41)↑ (0.35)↑ Previous (0.40) (0.44) (0.48) Revenue (M) ($) 0.0 0.0 0.0

¹As of November 12, 2025, the registrant had 72,952,235 shares of common stock outstanding

Company Description

Vivani Medical is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company leveraging its proprietary NanoPortal platform to develop miniature, subdermal drug implants. Designed to deliver steady-state therapeutic doses over extended periods, these implants aim to guarantee medication adherence and improve patient tolerability compared to daily pills or weekly injections. Vivani’s priority pipeline focuses on GLP-1 receptor agonists, specifically semaglutide and exenatide, for the treatment of chronic weight management and type 2 diabetes. Additionally, through its subsidiary Cortigent, the company is developing precision neurostimulation systems, including the Orion visual prosthesis, intended to help patients recover critical body functions

Important Disclosures

Analyst Certification

The analyst, Ashok Kumar, responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

Financial Interests

The analyst, Ashok Kumar, has no financial interest in the debt or equity securities of the subject company of this report. Further, no member of his household has any financial interest in the securities of the subject company. Neither the analyst, nor any member of his household, is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is the subject of this research report. The analyst has not received compensation from the subject company. The CEO of ThinkEquity, LLC., owns shares in the company. At the time of this research report, the analyst does not know, or have reason to know, of any other material conflict of interest.

Company Specific Disclosures

ThinkEquity, LLC is a member of FINRA and SIPC. ThinkEquity, LLC or an affiliate has a client relationship with and has received compensation from this subject company Vivani Medical, Inc. in the last 12 months.

ThinkEquity, LLC

ThinkEquity, LLC is a member of FINRA and SIPC. ThinkEquity expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking business from the subject company in the next three months. ThinkEquity does not make a market in the securities of the subject company of this report at the time of publication. ThinkEquity does not hold a beneficial ownership of more than 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. This report is for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. While the information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we have not independently verified the information and we do not represent or guarantee that the report is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any references or citations to, or excerpts from, third-party information or data sources (including, but not limited to, Bloomberg and Capital IQ) do not and are not intended to provide financial or investment advice and are not to be relied upon by anyone as providing financial or investment advice. Based on public information available to us, prices and opinions expressed in this report reflect judgments as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The securities covered by or mentioned in this report involve substantial risk and should generally be purchased only by investors able to accept such risk. This research report and the securities mentioned herein, some of which may not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, are intended only for Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), as defined under Rule 144A. Any opinions expressed assume that this type of investment is suitable for the investor.

Ratings Definitions

ThinkEquity rating definitions are expressed as the total return relative to the expected performance of S&P 500 over a 12-month period. BUY (B) - Total return expected to exceed S&P 500 by at least 10% HOLD (H) - Total return expected to be in-line with S&P 500 SELL (S) - Total return expected to underperform S&P 500 by at least 10%

Current Ratings Distribution This Equity Ratings Distribution reflects the percentage distribution for rated equity securities for the twelve month period June 30, 2019 through June 30, 2020. Within the twelve month period ended June 30, 2020, ThinkEquity, LLC has provided investment banking services to 54% of companies with equity rated a Buy, 0% of companies with equity rated a Hold and 0% of companies with equity rated a Sell. As of June 30, 2020, ThinkEquity, LLC had twentythree stocks under coverage: Buy 23 (100%), Hold 0 (0%), Sell 0 (0%).

Important Disclosures:

The foregoing research report and its content was written by Think Equity, a FINRA-registered broker-dealer. Streetwise Reports played no role in the writing of the report, has no financial relationship with Think Equity, and is not responsible for the content or opinions stated in the report. Please read the Think Equity disclosures at the end of the report.
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