New Data Supports BLA Package
Research Report

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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., Annexon Inc., December 17, 2024

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H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO, LLC RATING SYSTEM: H.C. Wainwright employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potential return and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured on a RELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potential movements in price that a given equity could reach provided certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject to external factors including industry events and market volatility.

H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC (the “Firm”) is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer. I, Andrew S. Fein, Ananda Ghosh, PhD, Matthew Caufield and Andres Y. Maldonado, PhD , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies. None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of Annexon, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of November 30, 2024 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Annexon, Inc..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm knows or has reason to know of any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report. The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services. The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Annexon, Inc. for investment banking services within twelve months before, but will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. The Firm does not make a market in Annexon, Inc. as of the date of this research report.

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In a December 17, 2024 research note, H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Andrew Fein maintained a Buy rating on Annexon Inc. (ANNX:NASDAQ) with a US$30.00 price target, following positive real-world evidence data comparing ANX005 to standard treatments for Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS). The research note was titled "Real World Evidence Data Bolster BLA Package — Our Thoughts."

Annexon announced topline data from a real-world evidence study comparing ANX005 treatment to Intravenous Immunoglobulin (IVIg) or Plasma Exchange (PE) in GBS patients. The study compared 79 real-world patients from the IGOS global patient registry to 79 patients treated with 30 mg/kg of ANX005 in the Phase 3 Bangladesh study.

Key findings include a 10-point improvement in muscle score (MRC sum score), which Fein noted is "generally not seen with the current standard of care." The ANX005-treated group was twice as likely to show improved health status compared to standard of care, with reduced need for mechanical ventilation and shorter ICU stays.

The analyst highlighted the Phase 3 trial results, where ANX005 showed "a nearly 2.4-fold improvement on the key primary endpoint, GBS-DS, at week 8 (p=0.0058)." The drug also demonstrated significant gains in muscle strength and reduced time to independent walking by 31 days compared to control.

According to Fein, "The fact that Annexon sees a rapid reduction in NfL, goes to show the importance of targeting C1q pathway in particular neurodegenerative and axon degenerative diseases, boosting Annexon's C1q focused pipeline."

The analyst outlined several risks, including "failure of ANX005 in clinical studies . . .  failure of ANX005 to secure regulatory approval in the U.S. and EU . . . and failure of ANX005 to achieve peak commercial revenue estimates."

The price target of US$30.00 is based on a composite valuation using both P/E multiple and NPV approaches, applying "a 30x multiple taxed and diluted 2034 EPS of US$3.8/share discounted back to December 2024 at 11%" and an NPV calculation with "a discount rate of 11% and growth rate of 2%."

The share price at the time of the report of US$5.06 represents a potential return of 493% to H.C. Wainwright's US$30.00 target price.