On July 7, 2025, ROTH Capital Markets analyst Dr. Jonathan Aschoff maintained a Buy rating on GeoVax Labs Inc. (GOVX:NASDAQ) while lowering the price target to US$14.00 from US$18.00, representing 2,817% upside from the share price at the time of the report of US$0.48.
The target reduction was "overwhelmingly due to recent capital raise dilution" despite favorable regulatory guidance and positive clinical developments across the company's vaccine portfolio.
Recent Capital Raise and Financial Position
Geovax Labs recently completed an equity capital raise, generating gross proceeds of approximately US$6 million in the early third quarter of 2025. The company maintains pro forma cash of US$12.8 million, including US$7.4 million at the end of the first quarter of 2025, plus an estimated US$5.4 million in net proceeds from the recent financing.
Aschoff projects this funding will support operations into the fourth quarter of 2025. The company reported no debt and 25.16 million shares outstanding, resulting in a market capitalization of US$12.08 million.
Regulatory Breakthrough for GEO-MVA Program
The European Medicines Agency provided highly favorable guidance for GEO-MVA, the company's prophylactic vaccine for Mpox and smallpox. Aschoff noted that "the agency confirmed the adequacy of GOVX's proposed non-clinical immuno-bridging and toxicity studies that can support Phase 3 development immediately thereafter, also confirming that Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials are not required."
The regulatory pathway requires only a single Phase 3 non-inferiority immuno-bridging trial versus the approved MVA vaccine Imvanex. The analyst emphasized that this decision "allows GOVX to engage with WHO Prequalification, which unlocks access to UNICEF, GAVI, global health procurement channels, and funding support." GEO-MVA represents the first and only U.S.-developed candidate for Mpox and smallpox, aligning with national biosecurity priorities amid the WHO's recent fourth declaration of Mpox as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
Clinical Progress Across Multiple Programs
GEO-CM04S1 demonstrated dual protection capabilities, eliciting immune responses protective against both SARS-CoV-2 and Mpox. At the AAI 2025 Annual Meeting, the company showed that anti-SARS-CoV-2 immune responses in healthy adults and non-human primates receiving GEO-CM04S1 were cross-reactive against Mpox and comparable to responses from the Jynneos smallpox/Mpox vaccine.
Interim Phase 2 data presented at the European Hematology Association demonstrated that GEO-CM04S1 "elicited a statistically superior cellular immune response (i.e., as measured by IFN-gamma cellular response; p=0.039) versus Comirnaty in CLL patients, an immunocompromised population." As a result, the trial now continues enrolling only the GEO-CM04S1 group, with both vaccines demonstrating good tolerability.
Preclinical Developments and Patent Portfolio
Recent data presented at Keystone Symposia on Vaccinology showed that one dose of GEO-CM02 COVID-19 vaccine completely protected hACE2 mice against infection from the original Wuhan strain and Omicron BA.1 variant. Two doses generated high neutralizing antibody titers and reduced viral loads in lung and brain tissue.
The USPTO issued a Notice of Allowance for a new Gedeptin patent covering methods for treating solid tumors through direct intratumoral administration of an adenoviral vector followed by prodrug and radiation therapy. Additionally, the company received Patent No. 12,329,808 for compositions using GOVX's MVA vector technology to prevent malaria, addressing what Aschoff described as "by far the largest animal-related global cause of human death."
Pipeline Development and Strategic Outlook
Gedeptin completed a Phase 1/2a trial as monotherapy in advanced head and neck cancer and is expected to begin a Phase 2 trial as neoadjuvant therapy with a checkpoint inhibitor in first recurrence head and neck cancer, with enrollment anticipated to begin in 2026.
The analyst noted that Keytruda's recent approval for resectable, locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma "bodes well for the Phase 2 design."
Financial Projections and Revenue Outlook
The company reported revenue of US$4.0 million for 2024, with projected revenue of US$2.2 million for 2025 before transitioning to significant commercial revenue beginning in 2027.
Aschoff's model projects revenue growth from US$48.2 million in 2027 to US$645.1 million by 2031, driven primarily by vaccine commercialization.
Valuation and Risk Assessment
The analyst's US$14.00 price target is based on a discounted cash flow analysis using a 40% discount rate applied to all cash flows and terminal value, calculated using a 4x multiple of projected 2031 operating income of US$417 million. Key risks include clinical trial failures, regulatory approval challenges, financing requirements, competitive pressures, and high stock price volatility common among small-cap biotechnology companies.
The substantial upside potential reflects the company's diversified vaccine portfolio addressing urgent global health needs, streamlined regulatory pathways, and the strategic value of being the only U.S.-developed Mpox/smallpox vaccine candidate in an environment of heightened biosecurity concerns.
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Disclosures for ROTH Capital Markets, GeoVax Labs Inc., July 7, 2025
Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Disclosures: Within the last twelve months, ROTH Capital Partners, or an affiliate to ROTH Capital Partners, has received compensation for investment banking services from Geovax Labs Inc. Shares of Geovax Labs Inc may be subject to the Securities and Exchange Commission's Penny Stock Rules, which may set forth sales practice requirements for certain low-priced securities. Shares of Geovax Labs Inc, (GOVX) may be subject to the Securities and Exchange Commission's Penny Stock Rules, which may set forth sales practice requirements for certain low-priced securities
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of July 7, 2025 Rating Count Percent Count Percent Buy [B] 367 77.43 114 31.06 Neutral [N] 87 18.35 7 8.05 Sell [S] 0 0.00 0 0 Under Review [UR] 20 4.22 1 5.00 Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12-month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH Capital employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH Capital does not publish research or have an opinion about this security.
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2025. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
