On April 24, 2025, D. Boral Capital analyst Jason Kolbert maintained a Buy ratings and a US$18.00 price target on Coya Therapeutics Inc. (COYA:NASDAQ), following the company's announcement of encouraging interim results from an investigator-initiated open-label study evaluating a combination of low-dose IL-2 and CTLA4-Ig in patients with mild to moderate Frontotemporal Dementia (FTD).
The interim results demonstrated a statistically significant increase in the number and suppressive function of regulatory T cells (Tregs) compared to baseline values. From a clinical perspective, patients exhibited minimal to no cognitive decline throughout the study period. The treatment was well tolerated, with no serious adverse events reported, and all five patients in the initial cohort successfully completed the study.
COYA 302's mechanism of action is based on a combination therapy approach using low-dose interleukin-2 (IL-2) and CTLA4-Ig to modulate the immune system, reduce neuroinflammation, and promote neuroprotection. Low-dose IL-2 selectively expands and activates Tregs, which play a critical role in maintaining immune homeostasis by suppressing inflammatory responses and inhibiting the release of neurotoxic cytokines. CTLA4-Ig (Abatacept) acts as an immune checkpoint inhibitor that binds to CD80 and CD86 on antigen-presenting cells, preventing the activation of T cells and dampening excessive immune responses. Together, these components create a synergistic effect by enhancing Treg-mediated suppression of inflammation while simultaneously inhibiting pro-inflammatory immune pathways.
Looking ahead, Coya Therapeutics anticipates several key milestones in 2025. The company plans to submit a data package to the FDA for a Phase 2 study of COYA 302 in patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) by the second quarter. Additionally, Coya expects to report topline results from the ongoing open-label study of low-dose IL-2 and CTLA4-Ig in Frontotemporal Dementia in the second half of the year.
The analyst's valuation model focuses on COYA-302 in ALS, applying a probability of success factor of 15% and a discount rate of 30%. The model assumes additional capital will be raised in the final share count and applies projections to Free Cash Flow to the firm (FCFF), discounted EPS (dEPS), and sum-of-the-parts (SOP) models. These components are equal-weighted, averaged, and rounded to derive the 12-month price target of US$18.00.
Key risk factors identified in the report include Clinical and Regulatory Risk, Partnership Risk, Financial Risk, Commercial Risk, Legal and Intellectual Property Risk, and Market Share Risk.
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Disclosures for D. Boral Capital, Coya Therapeutics Inc., April 24, 2025
Analyst Certification I, Jason Kolbert, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Company-Specific Disclosures General Disclosures The information contained in Research Reports or other Research products produced by D. Boral Capital LLC is for informational purposes only and does not constitute solicitation of the sale or purchase of securities or other investments. The information in such products is derived from sources that are believed to be reliable. Prices, numbers, and similar data include past results, estimates, and forecasts, all of which may differ from actual data. These prices, numbers, and similar data may also change without prior notification. D. Boral Capital holds the copyright on this research report. Any unauthorized use or transmission of any part of this research report for any reason, whether by digital, mechanical, or any other means, is prohibited. If you have any questions, please contact your sales representative. Additional information is available upon request. Certain company names, product and/or service names that appear in this research report are trademarks or registered trademarks of D. Boral Capital or other companies mentioned in the report. Copyright 2025 D. Boral Capital LLC.
