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TICKERS: SVA; SEOVF; PSH

Canadian Biotech Targets Massive Cell Technology Gains
Research Report

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Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc. (SVA:TSX.V; SEOVF:OTCQB; PSH:XETRA) recently announced a partnership with Eledon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ELDN:NASDAQ) to explore the utility of Eledon's clinical-stage anti-CD40L monoclonal antibody tegoprubart/AT-1501 for conferring sustainable immune evasion of pancreatic islets deployed into Sernova's Cell Pouch device. Read on to see why one Leede Financial Inc. analyst rates this stock as a Speculative Buy.

On July 10, 2025, Leede Financial Inc. analyst Dr. Douglas W. Loe maintained a Speculative Buy rating on Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc. (SVA:TSX.V; SEOVF:OTCQB; PSH:XETRA) with a CA$1.50 price target, representing 1,000% upside from the share price at the time of the report of CA$0.15.

The analyst cited the company's new alliance with Eledon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ELDN:NASDAQ) to explore the utility of a novel immunosuppressive agent in extending the functional duration of Cell Pouch-residing pancreatic islets.

Strategic Alliance and Immunosuppression Development

Sernova announced an alliance with Eledon Pharmaceuticals Inc. to explore the utility of Eledon's clinical-stage anti-CD40L monoclonal antibody tegoprubart/AT-1501 for conferring sustainable immune evasion of pancreatic islets deployed into Sernova's Cell Pouch device. The collaboration leverages existing clinical infrastructure at the University of Chicago, where transplantation surgeon Dr. Piotr Witkowski is conducting both companies' respective trials.

Eledon has demonstrated tegoprubart's immunosuppressive capabilities in xenotransplantation studies, with published data in the New England Journal of Medicine and Nature Medicine showing successful medium-term outcomes in porcine kidney and heart transplantation cases. Loe noted that "in both cases, survival duration thereafter was attenuated by secondary symptoms unrelated to tegoprubart's immunosuppressive power & tegoprubart actually performed well at least over a medium-term follow-up."

Clinical Trial Timeline and Regulatory Progress

Eledon stated at its R&D Day that it "expects first patient to be enrolled in a Cell Pouch/tegoprubart/AT-1501 collaborative study by FH225" (first half 2025).

The collaboration builds upon Dr. Witkowski's independent clinical program testing tegoprubart as an agent for mitigating islet immunologic rejection, which recently enrolled its first patient in a nine-patient trial expected to generate three-year data by early 2029.

Competitive Landscape and Market Position

The analyst highlighted Sernova's position relative to established competitors including Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX), which continues advancing its VX-880/zimislecel platform through Phase II/III trials with results expected in the second half of 2027. Vertex recently published data in the New England Journal of Medicine showing all VX-880 patients generated detectable C-peptide with no hypoglycemia episodes and achieved insulin independence during one-year follow-up.

Sana Biotechnology Inc. (NASDAQ: SANA) represents another competitor advancing its UP421 primary pancreatic islet platform incorporating hypoimmune technology. Sana reported data at the American Diabetes Association meeting showing C-peptide production in UP421 type I diabetic recipients for at least six months post-transplantation, with histological data demonstrating that modified islets evaded multiple immune responses.

Financial Position and Projections

Sernova maintains CA$2.0 million in pro forma cash and CA$0.8 million in total debt, with 328.5 million basic shares outstanding resulting in a market capitalization of CA$51 million and enterprise value of CA$54 million. The company reported minimal revenue, with projected revenue growth from CA$2.983 million in 2028 to CA$224.962 million by 2030 driven by Cell Pouch commercialization across multiple indications.

Loe's financial model projects the company achieving positive EBITDA of CA$134.667 million by 2030, with earnings per share of CA$0.35 and corresponding valuation multiples of 0.4x price-to-earnings and 0.4x EV/EBITDA ratios.

Technology Platform and Development Pipeline

The Cell Pouch technology serves as a subcutaneously-implanted, well-vascularized, minimally-fibrosed cell reservoir designed to sustain long-term blood glucose modulation of transplanted islets.

Beyond type 1 diabetes, the platform addresses hemophilia A through collaboration with HemAcure and thyroid disease in partnership with the University of British Columbia, with an IND filing expected in the first quarter of 2025.

Investment Thesis and Risk Assessment

Loe emphasized that substituting tegoprubart for traditional immunosuppressive agents could mitigate adverse side effects associated with current standard-of-care treatments. Traditional agents like cyclosporin A and tacrolimus are associated with renal toxicity, tremors, and paradoxically, blood glucose dysregulation in the case of tacrolimus, "the indication that islet transplantation is of course trying to alleviate."

The analyst's CA$1.50 price target is based on net present value analysis using a 35% discount rate and multiples of 2030 EBITDA and earnings forecasts. Key risks include partnership and capital constraints, though Loe noted that Cell Pouch "has met every technical specification that we predicted of the device since we initiated coverage back in 2016."

Market Opportunity and Strategic Outlook

The analyst believes Cell Pouch technology should gain widespread adoption as "a function-preserving reservoir like Cell Pouch should be widely partnered and deployed to facilitate advances in regenerative medicine going forward."

The technology addresses the fundamental challenge of islet transplantation by potentially eliminating or reducing immunosuppression requirements while maintaining therapeutic efficacy.


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Important Disclosures:

  1. Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc. has a consulting relationship with Street Smart an affiliate of Streetwise Reports. Street Smart Clients pay a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc.
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company. 
  4. This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

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Disclosures for Leede Financial Inc., Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc., July 10, 2025

Disclosures 2 Important Information and Legal Disclaimers Leede Financial Inc. (Leede) is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular investing strategy. Data from various sources were used in the preparation of these documents; the information is believed but in no way warranted to be reliable, accurate and appropriate. All information is as of the date of publication and is subject to change without notice. Any opinions or recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Leede. Leede cannot accept any trading instructions via e-mail as the timely receipt of e-mail messages, or their integrity over the Internet, cannot be guaranteed. Dividend yields change as stock prices change, and companies may change or cancel dividend payments in the future. All securities involve varying amounts of risk, and their values will fluctuate, and the fluctuation of foreign currency exchange rates will also impact your investment returns if measured in Canadian Dollars. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, investments may increase or decrease in value, and you may lose money. Leede employees may buy and sell shares of the companies that are recommended for their own accounts and for the accounts of other clients. Disclosure codes are used in accordance with Policy 3600 of CIRO. Description of Disclosure Codes 1. Leede and its affiliates collectively beneficially own 1% or more of any class of equity securities of the company as of the end of the preceding month or the month prior to the preceding month if the report was issued prior to the 10th. 2. The analyst or any associate of the analyst responsible for the report or public comment hold shares or is short any of the company's securities directly or through derivatives. 3. Leede or a director or officer of Leede or any analyst provided services to the company for remuneration other than normal investment advisory or trade execution services within the preceding 12 months. 4. Leede provided investment banking services for the company during the 12 months preceding the publication of the research report. 5. Leede expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months. 6. The analyst preparing the report received compensation based upon Leede investment banking revenues for this issuer within the preceding 12 months. 7. The director, officer, employee, or research analyst is an officer, director or employee of the company, or serves in an advisory capacity to the company. 8. Leede acts as a market maker of the company. 9. The analyst has conducted a site visit and has viewed a major facility or operation of the issuer. 10. The company has paid for all, or a material portion, of the travel costs associated with the site visit by the analyst. Dissemination All final research reports are disseminated to existing and potential institutional clients of Leede Financial Inc. (Leede) in electronic form to intended recipients thorough e-mail and third-party aggregators. Research reports are posted to the Leede website and are accessible to customers who are entitled to the firm’s research. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part without permission is prohibited. Research Analyst Certification The Research Analyst(s) who prepare this report certify that their respective report accurately reflects his/her personal opinion and that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views as to the securities or companies. Leede Financial Inc. (Leede) compensates its research analysts from a variety of sources and research analysts may or may not receive compensation based upon Leede investment banking revenue. Canadian Disclosures This research has been approved by Leede Financial Inc. (Leede), which accepts sole responsibility for this research and its dissemination in Canada. Leede is registered and regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Canadian clients wishing to effect transactions in any designated investment discussed should do so through a Leede Registered Representative. U.S. Disclosures This research report was prepared by Leede Financial Inc. (Leede). Leede is registered and regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities discussed herein. Leede is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States and is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. Any resulting transactions should be effected through a U.S. broker-dealer





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